Analyzing meteorological data of Strait of Canakkale by using trend methods and evaluating their effects on ship traffic

Meteorological analyses of Canakkale Strait for ship traffic

Abstract

Strait of Canakkale is a waterway that opens to the Mediterranean for countries bordering the Black Sea and has no alternative. It proves this with the number of passes reaching up to 50,000 annually. Therefore, any negative changes that may occur in the Strait of Canakkale will cause serious damage not only to Türkiye but to many countries. One of the most parameters of navigation in maritime is meteorological conditions. If a place has a stable meteorological cycle, it brings predictable effects to its geography, and this has a positive impact on navigational safety. However, meteorological changes disrupt this order and cause a more transitional weather condition. The aim of this study was to evaluate data between 1995-2020 from 3 meteorological stations selected within the marine area of the Strait of Canakkale with trend analysis performed using Serial Correlation, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's trend slope methods for possible influences on maritime transportation. Trend analysis methods were used to predict the future situation according to datas. Before analyzing the trend methods, serial correlation was investigated to find out whether the data were serially dependent. Sen method and Mann-Kendall test were applied in this study. There was no significant trend in total precipitation amounts and average sea water temperatures. On the other hand, an increasing trend was observed in monthly average temperature values. It is estimated that it will cause navigational restrictions in the Strait of Canakkale as temperature increases will cause a decrease in water level, increased fog formation and an increase in wind strength.