Marine spatial planning: a cautionary tale
Marine spatial planning
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15763990Keywords:
Blue economy, maritime business administration, marine spatial planning, strategic management, wicked problemsAbstract
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has emerged as a key instrument for governing marine spaces within the evolving paradigms of the blue economy, blue growth, and ecosystem-based management (EBM). This paper critically surveys the conceptual and practical dimensions of MSP by framing it within the context of wicked problems—ill-defined, complex, and socially embedded challenges that resist definitive solutions. Through a synthesis of literature across marine governance, participatory planning, and creative problem solving, the study identifies key barriers to effective MSP, including stakeholder fragmentation, short-termism, and cognitive bias, and explores how tools such as scenario planning and dialogue mapping can help address these barriers. The paper presents a conceptual framework that clarifies the interrelations among the blue economy, blue growth, and MSP, and critiques how current implementations risk reinforcing power asymmetries and marginalising vulnerable stakeholders. By positioning MSP as a creative, adaptive, and participatory response to complexity, the paper offers a cautionary perspective and practical insights for improving marine governance.
References
Andersen, P. D., Hansen, M., & Selin, C. (2021). Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 169, 120802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120802
Ansell, C., & Gash, A. (2007). Collaborative Governance in Theory and Practice. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 18(4), 543–571. https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/mum032
Ash, N., Blanco, H., Garcia, K., & Brown, C. (2010). Ecosystems and human well-being: a manual for assessment practitioners: Island Press.
Balint, P. J., Stewart, R. E., Desai, A., & Walters, L. C. (2011). Wicked environmental problems: managing uncertainty and conflict: Island Press.
Baumeister, R. F., & Leary, M. R. (1997). Writing Narrative Literature Reviews. Review of general psychology, 1(3), 311–320. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.1.3.311
Bennett, N. J., Blythe, J., White, C. S., & Campero, C. (2021). Blue growth and blue justice: Ten risks and solutions for the ocean economy. Marine Policy, 125, 104387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104387
Bennett, N. J., Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M., Blythe, J., Silver, J. J., Singh, G., Andrews, N., …, & Sumaila, U. R. (2019). Towards a sustainable and equitable blue economy. Nature Sustainability, 2(11), 991–993. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0404-1
Boonstra, W. J., Valman, M., & Björkvik, E. (2018). A sea of many colours – How relevant is Blue Growth for capture fisheries in the Global North, and vice versa? Marine Policy, 87, 340–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.09.007
Boucquey, N., Fairbanks, L., St. Martin, K., Campbell, L. M., & McCay, B. (2016). The ontological politics of marine spatial planning: Assembling the ocean and shaping the capacities of ‘Community’ and ‘Environment’. Geoforum, 75, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2016.06.014
Bradfield, R. (2012). Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons For Facilitators. In B. Sharpe & K. V. d. Heijden (Eds.), Scenarios For Success: Turning Insights into Action (pp. 259–277). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., & Cairns, G. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
Burgess, M. G., Clemence, M., McDermott, G. R., Costello, C., & Gaines, S. D. (2018). Five rules for pragmatic blue growth. Marine Policy, 87, 331–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.12.005
Cairns, G., Ahmed, I., Mullett, J., & Wright, G. (2013). Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.005
Caswell, B. A., Klein, E. S., Alleway, H. K., Ball, J. E., Botero, J., Cardinale, M., . . . Thurstan, R. H. (2020). Something old, something new: Historical perspectives provide lessons for blue growth agendas. Fish and Fisheries, 21(4), 774–796. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12460
Chermack, T. J., Coons, L. M., Nimon, K., Bradley, P., & Glick, M. B. (2015). The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Perceptions of Creative Organizational Climate. Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies, 22(3), 355–371. https://doi.org/10.1177/1548051815582225
Choi, Y. R. (2017). The Blue Economy as governmentality and the making of new spatial rationalities. Dialogues in Human Geography, 7(1), 37–41. https://doi.org/10.1177/2043820617691649
Conklin, J. (2005). Dialogue mapping: Building shared understanding of wicked problems: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Croft, F., Breakey, H., Voyer, M., Cisneros-Montemayor, A., Issifu, I., Solitei, M., …, & Pouponneau, A. (2024). Rethinking blue economy governance – A blue economy equity model as an approach to operationalise equity. Environmental Science & Policy, 155, 103710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103710
Douvere, F., Maes, F., Vanhulle, A., & Schrijvers, J. (2007). The role of marine spatial planning in sea use management: The Belgian case. Marine Policy, 31(2), 182–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2006.07.003
Duckett, D. G., McKee, A. J., Sutherland, L.-A., Kyle, C., Boden, L. A., Auty, H., …, & McKendrick, I. J. (2017). Scenario planning as communicative action: Lessons from participatory exercises conducted for the Scottish livestock industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 138–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.034
Ehler, C., & Douvere, F. (2007). Visions for a Sea change: Report of the First International Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and the Man and the Biosphere Programme UNESCO Headquarters. Paris, France. 8-10 November 2006.
Eikeset, A. M., Mazzarella, A. B., Davíðsdóttir, B., Klinger, D. H., Levin, S. A., Rovenskaya, E., & Stenseth, N. C. (2018). What is blue growth? The semantics of “Sustainable Development” of marine environments. Marine Policy, 87, 177–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.10.019
Elia, G., & Margherita, A. (2018). Can we solve wicked problems? A conceptual framework and a collective intelligence system to support problem analysis and solution design for complex social issues. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 133, 279–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.03.010
Erkkilä-Välimäki, A., Pohja-Mykrä, M., Katila, J., & Pöntynen, R. (2022). Coastal fishery stakeholders’ perceptions, motivation, and trust regarding maritime spatial planning and regional development: The case in the Bothnian Sea of the northern Baltic Sea. Marine Policy, 144, 105205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105205
Flannery, W., Healy, N., & Luna, M. (2018). Exclusion and non-participation in Marine Spatial Planning. Marine Policy, 88, 32–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.001
Gacutan, J., Galparsoro, I., Pınarbaşı, K., Murillas, A., Adewumi, I. J., Praphotjanaporn, T., …, & Milligan, B. M. (2022). Marine spatial planning and ocean accounting: Synergistic tools enhancing integration in ocean governance. Marine Policy, 136, 104936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104936
Germond‐Duret, C. (2022). Framing the Blue Economy: Placelessness, Development and Sustainability. Development and Change, 53(2), 308–334. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12703
Glick, M. B., Chermack, T. J., Luckel, H., & Gauck, B. Q. (2012). Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models. European Journal of Training and Development, 36(5), 488–507. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090591211232066
Godet, M. (2001). Creating Futures: scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London [etc.]: Economica.
Gokmen, G., & McKiernan, P. (2025). Exploring Creativity and Insight in the Scenario Process. In M. Crawford & G. Wright (Eds.), Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking (pp. 221–243). UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Haapasaari, P., & van Tatenhove, J. P. M. (2022). A Finnish regional non-binding MSP approach: What are the consequences for integrating Blue Growth and GES? Marine Policy, 141, 105101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105101
Haselton, M. G., Nettle, D., & Andrews, P. W. (2015). The evolution of cognitive bias. In D. M. Buss (Ed.), The handbook of evolutionary psychology (pp. 724–746).
Head, B. W., & Alford, J. (2015). Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management. Administration & Society, 47(6), 711–739. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095399713481601
Howard, B. C. (2018). Blue growth: Stakeholder perspectives. Marine Policy, 87, 375–377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.002
Jentoft, S., & Knol, M. (2014). Marine spatial planning: risk or opportunity for fisheries in the North Sea? Maritime Studies, 12(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.1186/2212-9790-12-13
Johnson-Laird, P. N., Girotto, V., & Legrenzi, P. (1998). Mental models: a gentle guide for outsiders. Sistemi intelligenti, 9(68), 33.
Kaufman, J. C., & Sternberg, R. J. (2010). The Cambridge handbook of creativity: Cambridge University Press.
Keen, M. R., Schwarz, A.-M., & Wini-Simeon, L. (2018). Towards defining the Blue Economy: Practical lessons from pacific ocean governance. Marine Policy, 88, 333–341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.03.002
Kyvelou, S. S. I., & Ierapetritis, D. G. (2019). How to make blue growth operational? A local and regional stakeholders perspective in Greece. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 18(2), 249–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13437-019-00171-1
Levin, K., Cashore, B., Bernstein, S., & Auld, G. (2012). Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change. Policy sciences, 45(2), 123–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-012-9151-0
Lillebø, A. I., Pita, C., Garcia Rodrigues, J., Ramos, S., & Villasante, S. (2017). How can marine ecosystem services support the Blue Growth agenda? Marine Policy, 81, 132–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.03.008
McGowan, L., Jay, S., & Kidd, S. (2019). Scenario-building for marine spatial planning. In J. Zaucha & K. Gee (Eds.), Maritime Spatial Planning: past, present, future (pp. 327–351). Cham: Springer Nature.
Meissner, P., & Wulf, T. (2017). The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation. European Management Journal, 35(4), 430–439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2016.12.004
Morf, A., Moodie, J., Gee, K., Giacometti, A., Kull, M., Piwowarczyk, J., …, & Strand, H. (2019). Towards sustainability of marine governance: Challenges and enablers for stakeholder integration in transboundary marine spatial planning in the Baltic Sea. Ocean & Coastal Management, 177, 200–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.04.009
Mulazzani, L., & Malorgio, G. (2017). Blue growth and ecosystem services. Marine Policy, 85, 17–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.08.006
Mumford, M. D., Blair, C., Dailey, L., Leritz, L. E., & Osburn, H. K. (2006). Errors in Creative Thought? Cognitive Biases in a Complex Processing Activity. The Journal of Creative Behavior, 40(2), 75–109. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2162-6057.2006.tb01267.x
Quero García, P., García Sanabria, J., & Chica Ruiz, J. A. (2019). The role of maritime spatial planning on the advance of blue energy in the European Union. Marine Policy, 99, 123–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.10.015
Rittel, H. W., & Webber, M. M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy sciences, 4(2), 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01405730
Said, A., & Macmillan, D. (2020). ‘Re-grabbing’ marine resources: a blue degrowth agenda for the resurgence of small-scale fisheries in Malta. Sustainability Science, 15(1), 91–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00769-7
Simon, H. A. (1996). The Sciences of the Artificial Third Issue: MIT press.
Smith, G., & Jentoft, S. (2017). Marine spatial planning in Scotland. Levelling the playing field? Marine Policy, 84, 33–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.024
Smith, S. M., Ward, T. B., & Schumacher, J. S. (1993). Constraining effects of examples in a creative generation task. Mem Cognit, 21(6), 837–845. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03202751
Smith-Godfrey, S. (2016). Defining the blue economy. Maritime affairs: Journal of the national maritime foundation of India, 12(1), 58–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/09733159.2016.1175131
Smith-Godfrey, S. (2022). Performance indicators for the blue economy. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 14(3), 149–170. https://doi.org/10.1080/18366503.2021.1962052
Sterman, J. D. (2006). Learning from Evidence in a Complex World. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 505–514. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2005.066043
Tolvanen, H., Erkkilä-Välimäki, A., & Nylén, T. (2019). From silent knowledge to spatial information – Mapping blue growth scenarios for maritime spatial planning. Marine Policy, 107, 103598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103598
van Bueren, E. M., Klijn, E.-H., & Joop, F. M. K. (2003). Dealing with Wicked Problems in Networks: Analyzing an Environmental Debate from a Network Perspective. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory: J-PART, 13(2), 193–212. Retrieved from www.jstor.org/stable/3525710
Verma, N., & Jolly, V. (2019). Conceptualisation and Emerging Classification of Blue Economy. Journal of Indian Ocean Rim Studies, 2(1), 46–70. https://doi.org/COI: 20.500.12592/z9dsv9
Voyer, M., Quirk, G., McIlgorm, A., & Azmi, K. (2018). Shades of blue: what do competing interpretations of the Blue Economy mean for oceans governance? Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 20(5), 595–616. https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908x.2018.1473153
Young, M. (2015). Building the Blue Economy: The Role of Marine Spatial Planning in Facilitating Offshore Renewable Energy Development. The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, 30(1), 148–174. https://doi.org/10.1163/15718085-12341339
Zuercher, R., Ban, N. C., Flannery, W., Guerry, A. D., Halpern, B. S., Magris, R. A., …, & Kramer, J. G. (2022). Enabling conditions for effective marine spatial planning. Marine Policy, 143, 105141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105141
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Gökhan GÖKMEN

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.