Ecological and geopolitical challenges in sustaining global fishmeal supply for aquaculture
Challenges in sustaining global fishmeal supply for aquaculture
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15764050Keywords:
Aquaculture, climate change, fishmeal, forage fish, sustainability, trade barriersAbstract
Aquaculture plays a pivotal role in addressing global food security, particularly as wild-capture fisheries approach ecological saturation and can no longer meet rising nutritional demands. Fishmeal—valued for its high-quality protein profile—has emerged as a critical feed component, yet its continued use raises pressing concerns linked to ecological degradation and growing geopolitical uncertainty. This paper explores the structural vulnerabilities of the global fishmeal supply chain, drawing attention to the overharvesting of forage fish, climate-induced stock instability—reflected in a roughly 40% decline in production between 2013 and 2023—and the compounding effects of trade restrictions, including U.S.–China tariff escalations (2023–2025) and regional import bans. Unsustainable exploitation of pelagic species threatens marine biodiversity and disrupts ecological trophic networks, while global crises such as pandemics and maritime transport bottlenecks further expose fragilities in the system. In synthesizing these dynamics, the review calls for a transition toward ecosystem-based fisheries governance, geographically decentralized feed production, and strategically resilient supply chains. The analysis concludes with policy imperatives that prioritize international cooperation, anticipatory regulatory mechanisms, and adaptive management strategies to mitigate converging risks to aquaculture’s long-term sustainability.
References
Ahmed, N., & Azra, M. N. (2022). Aquaculture production and value chains in the COVID-19 pandemic. Current environmental health reports, 9(3), 423-435. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-022-00364-6
Auzins, M., Llorente, I., Gasco, L., de Francesco, M., & Monfort, M. C. (2024). Sustainability challenges and solutions for fishmeal and fish oil in aquafeeds. Aquaculture Reports, 29, 101553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqrep.2024.101553
Bakun, A., & Weeks, S. J. (2008). The marine ecosystem off Peru: What are the secrets of its fishery productivity and what might its future hold? Progress in Oceanography, 79(2–4), 290–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.027
Barange, M., Merino, G., Blanchard, J. L., Scholtens, J., Harle, J., Allison, E. H., ... & Jennings, S. (2014). Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries. Nature Climate Change, 4(3), 211–216. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2119
Cashion, T., Le Manach, F., Zeller, D., & Pauly, D. (2017). Most fish destined for fishmeal production are food‐grade fish. Fish and Fisheries, 18(5), 837–844. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12209
Cho, J. H., & Kim, I. H. (2011). Fish meal – nutritive value. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition, 95(6), 685–692. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0396.2010.01109.x
EUMOFA. (2023). Fishmeal and fish oil: Production and trade flows in the EU. Publications Office of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2771/47090
FAO. (2018). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 – Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals. FAO. https://doi.org/10.18356/8d6ea4b6-en
FAO. (2020). How is COVID-19 affecting the fisheries and aquaculture food systems? https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8637en
FAO. (2021). GLOBEFISH Highlights: A quarterly update on world seafood markets. 1st issue 2021 January–September 2020 statistics (Globefish Highlights No. 1–2021). Rome: FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4129en
FAO. (2022). The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2022: Towards blue transformation. Rome: FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0461en
FAO. (2024). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024 – Blue Transformation in action. Roma. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd0683en
Froehlich, H. E., Jacobsen, N. S., Essington, T. E., Clavelle, T., & Halpern, B. S. (2018). Avoiding the ecological limits of forage fish for fed aquaculture. Nature Sustainability, 1(6), 298–303. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0077-1
General Administration of Customs of the P.R.C. (2023, August 24). 海关总署公告2023年第103号（关于全面暂停进口日本水产品的公告） [Announcement No. 103 of 2023 by the General Administration of Customs on the Suspension of Imports of Japanese Aquatic Products]. Retrieved April 16, 2025, from http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/2480148/5274475/index.html
Ghamkhar, R., & Hicks, A. (2020). Comparative environmental impact assessment of aquafeed production: Sustainability implications of forage fish meal and oil free diets. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 161, 104849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104849
Glencross, B. D., Baily, J., Berntssen, M. H. G., Hardy, R., MacKenzie, S., & Tocher, D. R. (2020). Risk assessment of the use of alternative animal and plant raw material resources in aquaculture feeds. Reviews in Aquaculture, 12(2), 703–758. https://doi.org/10.1111/raq.12347
Gosh, K., Chowdhury, S., Acharjee, D. C., Mamun, A.-A., & Ghosh, R. (2022). Assessing the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on the Aquaculture and Fisheries Sectors in Relation to Food Security: A Critical Review. Sustainability, 14(14), 8766. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148766
Hua, K., Cobcroft, J. M., Cole, A., Condon, K., Jerry, D. R., Mangott, A., ... & Strugnell, J. M. (2019). The future of aquatic protein: Implications for protein sources in aquaculture diets. One Earth, 1(3), 316–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.018
Jarvis, C., & Brennan, M. L. (2024). History of trawling and ecological impact. In C. Jarvis (Ed.), Threats to our ocean heritage: Bottom trawling (SpringerBriefs in Archaeology). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57953-0_2
Jennings, S., & Kaiser, M. J. (1998). The effects of fishing on marine ecosystems. Advances in Marine Biology, 34, 201–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2881(08)60212-6
Lennane, A. (2020). Air freight rates on the up again, driven by more demand for less capacity. The Loadstar. Retrieved April 25, 2025, from https://theloadstar.com/air-freight-rates-on-the-up-again-driven-by-more-demand-for-less-capacity/
Link, J. S. (2021). Evidence of ecosystem overfishing in U.S. large marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 78(9), 3176–3201. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab185
Love, D. C., Asche, F., Fry, J., Brown, M., Nguyen, L., Garlock, T. M., Nussbaumer, E. M., Sarmiento, G. L., Tveteraas, S., & Neff, R. (2024). Fisheries and aquaculture by-products: Case studies in Norway, United States, and Vietnam. Marine Policy, 167, 106276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106276
Majluf, P., Matthews, K., Pauly, D., Skerritt, D. J., & Palomares, M. L. D. (2024). A review of the global use of fishmeal and fish oil and the Fish In:Fish Out metric. Science Advances, 10(42), eadn5650. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn5650
Manan, H., Jalilah, M., Fauzan, F., Ikhwanuddin, M., Amin-Safwan, A., Abdullah, N. S., ... Kasan, N. A. (2023). Recent developments in aquaculture–a review. Annals of Animal Science, 23(3), 663–680. https://doi.org/10.2478/aoas-2023-0044
Martin, C. (2017). Not so many fish in the sea. Current Biology, 27(11), R439–R443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.05.049
Miles, R. D., & Chapman, F. A. (2006). The benefits of fish meal in aquaculture diets (FA122). EDIS, 2006(12). Gainesville, FL: University of Florida IFAS Extension. https://doi.org/10.32473/edis-fa122-2006
Ministry of Commerce of the P.R.C. (2023, May 11). China–Ecuador free trade agreement. Retrieved April 16, 2025, from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/ecuador/ecuador_special.shtml#2F
Ministry of Commerce of the P.R.C. (2024, January 18). China–Serbia free trade agreement. Retrieved April 16, 2025, from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/serbia/serbia_special.shtml
Naylor, R. L., Hardy, R. W., Buschmann, A. H., Bush, S. R., Cao, L., Klinger, D. H., ... & Troell, M. (2021). A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture. Nature, 591(7851), 551–563. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03308-6
OECD. (2020). Fisheries, aquaculture and COVID-19: Issues and policy responses. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/a2aa15de-en
Özkanlısoy, Ö., & Akkartal, E. (2022). The effect of Suez Canal blockage on supply chains. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(1), 51-79. https://doi.org/10.18613/deudfd.933816
Pelletier, N., Tyedmers, P., Sonesson, U., Scholz, A., Ziegler, F., Flysjo, A., ... & Simões, D. (2009). Not all salmon are created equal: Life cycle assessment (LCA) of global salmon farming systems. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(23), 8730–8736. https://doi.org/10.1021/es9010114
Pikitch, E. K., Rountos, K. J., Essington, T. E., Santora, C., Pauly, D., Watson, R., ... & Munch, S. B. (2014). The global contribution of forage fish to marine fisheries and ecosystems. Fish and Fisheries, 15(1), 43–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12004
Samaddar, A. (2018). Fish meal and fish oil as strategic feed ingredients in aquaculture – A review. International Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Studies, 6(6), 203–208. Retrieved April 18, 2025, from https://www.fisheriesjournal.com/archives/2018/vol6issue6/PartC/6-6-11-136.pdf
Shaw, C., Knopf, K., Roy, K., Ulrichs, C., & Kloas, W. (2024). Animal versus plant protein sources in marine ingredient-free aquaponic diets: A case study on nutrient release, and retention of African catfish (Clarias gariepinus) reared in RAS. Aquaculture, 584, 740641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2024.740641
Shepherd, C. J., & Jackson, A. J. (2013). Global fishmeal and fish-oil supply: Inputs, outputs and markets. Journal of Fish Biology, 83(4), 1046–1066. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.12224
Smith, I. D., Overland, I., & Szulecki, K. (2024). The EU's CBAM and its ‘significant others’: Three perspectives on the Political Fallout from Europe's unilateral climate policy initiative. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 62(2), 603-618. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13512
Smith, V. H., Tilman, G. D., & Nekola, J. C. (1999). Eutrophication: Impacts of excess nutrient inputs on freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems. Environmental Pollution, 100(1-3), 179–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0269-7491(99)00091-3
State Council Tariff Commission of the P.R.C. (2025, April 11). 国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告 [Announcement No. 6 of 2025 by the State Council Tariff Commission on Adjusting Tariff Measures on U.S. Imported Products]. Retrieved April 16, 2025, from https://gss.mof.gov.cn/gzdt/zhengcefabu/202504/t20250411_3961823.htm
Tacon, A. G., & Metian, M. (2008). Global overview on the use of fish meal and fish oil in industrially compounded aquafeeds: Trends and future prospects. Aquaculture, 285(1-4), 146-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2008.08.015
The White House. (2025, April 9). Modifying reciprocal tariff rates to reflect trading partner retaliation and alignment. Retrieved April 16, 2025, from https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/
Turchini, G. M., Ng, W.-K., & Tocher, D. R. (Eds.). (2010). Fish oil replacement and alternative lipid sources in aquaculture feeds (0 ed.). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781439808634
U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2023, December 22). As Russia completes transition to a full war economy, treasury expands sanctions authorities and targets foreign financial institutions supporting Russia’s military-industrial base. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2404
United Nations DESA. (2024). World population prospects: The 2024 revision: Summary of results (UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 9). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved from https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-population-prospects-2024-summary-results
USDA. (2024). China Fishery Products Report. The United States Department of Agriculture. Foreign Agricultural Service. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=2024+China+Fishery+Products+Report_Beijing_China+-+People%27s+Republic+of_CH2024-0044.pdf
Vasilaki, A., Mente, E., Fountoulaki, E., Henry, M., Nikoloudaki, C., Berillis, P., Kousoulaki, K., & Nengas, I. (2023). Fishmeal, plant protein, and fish oil substitution with single-cell ingredients in organic feeds for European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Frontiers in Physiology, 14, 1199497. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2023.1199497
Yue, K., & Shen, Y. (2022). An overview of disruptive technologies for aquaculture. Aquaculture and Fisheries, 7(2), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaf.2021.04.009
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Tolga ŞAHİN
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
MAREP is licensed under a 